St. Leo leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 59% of adults in St. Leo typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in St. Leo, ~25% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How St. Leo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, St. Leo leans more Republican than 10 of 47 neighbors.
Politically, St. Leo sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within St. Leo. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+10), a spread of about 23 points.
Why St. Leo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for St. Leo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
St. Leo votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 25%, far below the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a never-married-heavy adult population tend to turn out at a lower rate; St. Leo, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in St. Leo looks the way it does
Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and St. Leo sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Dade City, FL R+30
- St. Joseph, FL R+39
- San Antonio, FL R+27
- Pasadena Hills, FL R+23
- Darby, FL R+44
- Zephyrhills, FL R+26
- Zephyrhills West, FL R+29
- Zephyrhills South, FL R+31
- Spring Lake, FL R+56
- Wesley Chapel, FL R+6
Cities with Similar Populations
- Campton, KY R+56
- George West, TX R+54
- Falconer, NY R+29
- Willis, MI R+13
- Osgood, IN R+62
- Shepherd, MT R+62
- Athens, IL R+42
- North Shore, CA D+16
- Mayville, MI R+42
- Howards Grove, WI R+35
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.