Tarpon Springs leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Tarpon Springs typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tarpon Springs, ~32% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tarpon Springs compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tarpon Springs leans more Republican than 20 of 52 neighbors.
Politically, Tarpon Springs sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tarpon Springs. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+21) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+6), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Tarpon Springs leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tarpon Springs, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tarpon Springs votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 62%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Tarpon Springs, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tarpon Springs looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Tarpon Springs is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 64%, above 62% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Holiday, FL R+21
- East Lake, FL R+21
- Crystal Beach, FL R+28
- Palm Harbor, FL R+18
- Elfers, FL R+26
- New Port Richey, FL R+27
- Oldsmar, FL R+16
- Dunedin, FL R+10
- New Port Richey East, FL R+27
- Keystone, FL R+27
Cities with Similar Populations
- Marina, CA D+32
- Wailuku, HI D+19
- Powell, TN R+44
- Sachse, TX R+11
- Feasterville-Trevose, PA R+10
- Horn Lake, MS D+21
- Red Bluff, CA R+29
- Fort Dodge, IA R+15
- Ellensburg, WA D+4
- Haslet, TX R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.