Tonalea leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Tonalea typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tonalea, ~50% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tonalea compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tonalea leans more Democratic than 2 of 5 neighbors.
Tonalea runs about 46 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Tonalea is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tonalea. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+49) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+31), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Tonalea leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tonalea, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tonalea votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Tonalea runs about 46 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 54% of adults in Tonalea have never been married, in the top fraction of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Tonalea, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Tonalea looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tonalea is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 36%, about 18 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Red Lake, AZ D+47
- Kaibito, AZ D+34
- Shonto, AZ D+41
- Tsegi, AZ D+29
- Rare Metals, AZ D+63
- Tuba City, AZ D+41
- Moenkopi, AZ D+57
- Moenave, AZ D+49
- Sand Springs, AZ D+52
- Hard Rocks, AZ D+55
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adamstown, PA R+28
- Chevy Chase Village, MD D+69
- Onondaga, MI R+34
- Groveton, NH R+36
- Shenandoah Junction, WV R+21
- Gardner, IL R+32
- Lookout Mountain, TN R+18
- Monona, IA R+36
- Buhl, AL R+72
- Timpson, TX R+62
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.