33131 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 58% of adults in 33131 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33131, ~32% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33131 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33131 leans more Democratic than 42 of 62 neighbors.
33131 runs about 20 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33131 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33131. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+2), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 33131 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33131, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 96% of residents in 33131 live in densely developed areas, about 59 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 33131 sits in the top quarter (about 80%, in the top fraction of zip codes). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 36% of adults in 33131 have never been married, above 81% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33131, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33131 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 60% of households in 33131 rent, about 35 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 33131 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 33131 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.