33109 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 47% of adults in 33109 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33109, ~18% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33109 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33109 leans more Republican than 40 of 53 neighbors.
33109 runs about 10 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why 33109 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33109, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 75% of households in 33109 are family households, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33109, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33109 looks the way it does
High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, mostly because the housing stress common in those areas makes voting harder. 33109 sits in the top 15% nationally on a violent-crime measure. See CrimeGrade for more details. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.