Castlegate leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Castlegate typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Castlegate, ~25% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Castlegate compares
Castlegate sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable neighborhoods nearby.
Castlegate runs about 27 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why Castlegate leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Castlegate, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 91% of households in Castlegate are family households, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Castlegate, San Tan Valley, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Castlegate looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in Castlegate own their home, about 17 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Pecan Creek, San Tan Valley, AZ R+23
- Circle Cross Ranch, San Tan Valley, AZ R+22
- Power Ranch, Gilbert, AZ R+16
- Palm Springs, Apache Junction, AZ R+23
- San Tan Ranch, Gilbert, AZ R+16
- Southeast Mesa, Mesa, AZ R+18
- Sun Groves, Chandler, AZ R+8
- Northeast, Mesa, AZ R+20
- Heritage District, Gilbert, AZ D+5
- The Islands, Gilbert, AZ R+5
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- North Garrett Road, Durham, NC D+58
- Little Flower, Indianapolis, IN D+46
- Avondale, Sacramento, CA D+28
- Whittier, Denver, CO D+79
- Corcoran, Minneapolis, MN D+78
- Chestnut Park, Trenton, NJ D+42
- Westside Development, Tucson, AZ D+27
- West Plaza, Kansas City, MO D+56
- Islandview, Detroit, MI D+81
- Northwestern Denver, Denver, CO D+48
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.