Centerville leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About more than 99% of adults in Centerville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Centerville, ~48% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~-3% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Centerville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Centerville leans more Republican than 72 of 108 neighbors.
Centerville runs about 11 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole.
Why Centerville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Centerville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Centerville votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 71%, far above the Minnesota average of 23%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Centerville, MN does.
Why turnout in Centerville looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Centerville is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Centerville have completed high school, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lino Lakes, MN R+9
- Hugo, MN R+8
- North Oaks, MN D+22
- Circle Pines, MN Even
- Lexington, MN D+4
- Dellwood, MN Even
- Shoreview, MN D+30
- White Bear Lake, MN D+20
- Gem Lake, MN D+21
- Vadnais Heights, MN D+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ekron, KY R+56
- Palmyra, VA R+26
- Sublimity, OR R+31
- Peach Bottom, PA R+59
- New Haven, MO R+56
- Fennimore, WI R+30
- Lakehurst, NJ R+18
- North Shore, LA D+22
- Clearlake Oaks, CA Even
- Gibson City, IL R+35
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.