Honolulu County leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 48% of adults in Honolulu County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Honolulu County, ~29% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Honolulu County compares
Honolulu County runs about 5 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Honolulu County. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+31) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 24 points.
Why Honolulu County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Honolulu County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 38% of adults in Honolulu County hold a bachelor's degree, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 34% of adults in Honolulu County have never been married, above 82% of counties.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Honolulu County, HI sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Honolulu County looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 9% of homes in Honolulu County have more than one occupant per room, above 98% of counties. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Honolulu County sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 39% of households in Honolulu County rent, above 92% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Maui County, HI D+19
- Kauai County, HI D+20
- Hawaii County, HI D+20
- Aleutians West Census Area, AK Even
- Aleutians East Borough, AK D+6
- Mendocino County, CA D+23
- Humboldt County, CA D+27
- Marin County, CA D+48
- Sonoma County, CA D+42
Counties with Similar Populations
- Fresno County, CA D+3
- Westchester County, NY D+27
- St. Louis County, MO D+28
- Duval County, FL D+7
- Pima County, AZ D+16
- Marion County, IN D+29
- Montgomery County, MD D+52
- Collin County, TX R+6
- Prince George's County, MD D+71
- Fulton County, GA D+46
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.