Middletown leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Middletown typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middletown, ~55% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middletown compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Middletown leans more Democratic than 24 of 32 neighbors.
Middletown runs about 27 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Middletown leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middletown, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Middletown live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Middletown sits in the top quarter (about 61%, above 82% of neighborhoods).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Middletown, San Diego, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Middletown looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Middletown is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Mission Hills-San Diego, San Diego, CA D+42
- Park West, San Diego, CA D+54
- Hillcrest, San Diego, CA D+61
- Little Italy, San Diego, CA D+40
- Cortez Hill, San Diego, CA D+50
- Columbia San Diego, San Diego, CA D+37
- Moreno Mission, San Diego, CA D+40
- University Heights, San Diego, CA D+63
- Midtown District, San Diego, CA D+32
- Core, San Diego, CA D+43
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Harbor, Ashtabula, OH R+7
- Westgate, Fargo, ND D+10
- Jefferson, San Antonio, TX D+36
- Duval, Jacksonville, FL R+21
- Downtown Springfield, Springfield, MO D+19
- Beulah Heights, Pueblo, CO D+10
- Paradise Valley, South San Francisco, CA D+42
- Rock Creek Lexington Road, Louisville, KY D+35
- Barcroft, Arlington, VA D+48
- Courier City, Tampa, FL Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.