Barcroft leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Barcroft typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Barcroft, ~50% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Barcroft compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Barcroft leans more Democratic than 6 of 45 neighbors.
Barcroft runs about 43 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Barcroft. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+57) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+45), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Barcroft leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Barcroft, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 61% of adults in Barcroft hold a bachelor's degree, about 33 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Barcroft, Arlington, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Barcroft looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Barcroft is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Columbia Heights West, Arlington, VA D+40
- Columbia Forest, Arlington, VA D+51
- Douglas Park, Arlington, VA D+53
- Forest Glen, Arlington, VA D+43
- Buckingham, Arlington, VA D+52
- Ashton Heights, Arlington, VA D+62
- Nauck, Arlington, VA D+67
- Penrose, Arlington, VA D+58
- Bluemont, Arlington, VA D+60
- Columbia Heghts, Arlington, VA D+61
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Rittersville, Allentown, PA D+10
- Lowry Hill, Minneapolis, MN D+74
- Walnut Creek, Pembroke Pines, FL D+18
- Madison-Eastend, Baltimore, MD D+85
- Creighton, Richmond, VA D+84
- Beulah Heights, Pueblo, CO D+10
- North Meadow Brook, Norfolk, VA D+29
- Duval, Jacksonville, FL R+21
- Old Town Manchester, Richmond, VA D+64
- Brandywine, Oklahoma City, OK R+26
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.