Merced Falls leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 54% of adults in Merced Falls typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Merced Falls, ~16% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Merced Falls compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Merced Falls leans more Republican than 27 of 32 neighbors.
Merced Falls runs about 61 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Merced Falls is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Merced Falls. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+47) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Merced Falls leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Merced Falls, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Merced Falls votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Merced Falls runs about 61 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Merced Falls sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 3%, below 89% of cities). Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Merced Falls sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 75% of cities).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Merced Falls, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Merced Falls looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 34% of households in Merced Falls rent, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in Merced Falls have more than one occupant per room, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lake Don Pedro, CA R+37
- La Grange, CA R+45
- Hornitos, CA R+5
- Snelling, CA R+47
- Moccasin, CA R+41
- Coulterville, CA R+34
- Big Oak Flat, CA R+23
- Buhach, CA R+13
- Greeley Hill, CA R+34
- Mount Bullion, CA R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Youngers Store, VA R+36
- Cross Roads, IN R+57
- Grafton, NE R+66
- Grand Mesa, CO R+37
- Nulato, AK D+35
- Sumpter, AR R+60
- Ogle, KY R+78
- Lucero, NM D+48
- Dutch John, UT R+60
- Sumterville, AL D+44
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.