New Tampa leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 68% of adults in New Tampa typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in New Tampa, ~39% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How New Tampa compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, New Tampa leans more Democratic than 3 of 4 neighbors.
New Tampa runs about 27 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while New Tampa is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why New Tampa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for New Tampa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 63% of adults in New Tampa hold a bachelor's degree, about 35 points above the U.S. average of 28%. New Tampa runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; New Tampa, Tampa, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in New Tampa looks the way it does
Turnout in New Tampa sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Cory Lake Isles, Tampa, FL Even
- Hunters Green, Tampa, FL D+9
- Meadow Point, Wesley Chapel, FL R+5
- West Meadows, Tampa, FL D+15
- Seven Oaks, Wesley Chapel, FL R+9
- Tampa Palms, Tampa, FL D+16
- Temple Park, Tampa, FL D+27
- Cross Fletcher, University, FL D+35
- Temple Crest, Tampa, FL D+48
- University Square, Tampa, FL D+36
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Clinton, Oakland, CA D+58
- Highlands Historic District, State College, PA D+36
- Lakewood Springs, Plano, IL Even
- Angelo Heights, San Angelo, TX R+22
- Flagler Heights, Fort Lauderdale, FL D+20
- Lely Resort, Naples, FL R+15
- Near N Valley, Albuquerque, NM D+42
- Spirit Valley-Denfeld-Norton Park, Duluth, MN D+20
- Tenney-Lapham, Madison, WI D+82
- Pinellas Point, St. Petersburg, FL D+48
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.