University Square, Tampa, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in University Square

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

University Square leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.

 

About 37% of adults in University Square typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in University Square, ~25% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~63% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How University Square compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, University Square leans more Democratic than 8 of 15 neighbors.

University Square runs about 49 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while University Square is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by block within University Square. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+44) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+26), a spread of about 18 points.

Why University Square leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for University Square, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

University Square votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while University Square runs about 49 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 55% of adults in University Square have never been married, above 89% of neighborhoods.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; University Square, Tampa, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in University Square looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. University Square is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 38%, about 19 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 66% of households in University Square rent, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 79% of adults in University Square have completed high school, below 86% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.