Palma Ceia is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 98% of adults in Palma Ceia typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Palma Ceia, ~51% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~2% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Palma Ceia compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Palma Ceia leans more Democratic than 16 of 25 neighbors.
Palma Ceia runs about 18 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Palma Ceia is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Palma Ceia. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Palma Ceia leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Palma Ceia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density pulls a place toward Democrats and a high white share pulls it toward Republicans. In Palma Ceia the two roughly cancel. Palma Ceia runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Palma Ceia, Tampa, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Palma Ceia looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Palma Ceia is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and more than 99% of adults in Palma Ceia have completed high school, above 94% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Lasley, Lakewood, CO D+20
- Meadowbrook Heights, Kansas City, MO R+3
- Westhaven, Franklin, TN R+31
- Broad Ripple, Indianapolis, IN D+48
- South East Community, Grand Rapids, MI D+66
- Lincoln Park, Milwaukee, WI D+83
- Parkland, Louisville, KY D+90
- Northeast, Kansas City, KS D+67
- Julia Keen, Tucson, AZ D+33
- Casa Loma, Bakersfield, CA D+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.