Capistrano Beach leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Capistrano Beach typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Capistrano Beach, ~34% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Capistrano Beach compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Capistrano Beach leans more Republican than 21 of 34 neighbors.
Capistrano Beach runs about 29 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Capistrano Beach is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Capistrano Beach. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+15) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Capistrano Beach leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Capistrano Beach, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Capistrano Beach votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 88%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Capistrano Beach runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Capistrano Beach, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Capistrano Beach looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Capistrano Beach is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Dana Point, CA R+3
- San Clemente, CA R+11
- San Juan Capistrano, CA R+4
- Laguna Niguel, CA Even
- Ladera Ranch, CA Even
- Laguna Beach, CA D+14
- Aliso Viejo, CA D+11
- Laguna Hills, CA D+2
- Top-of-the-World, CA D+5
- Coto de Caza, CA R+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Helena Valley Southeast, MT R+35
- Bremen, IN R+44
- Pismo Beach, CA D+14
- Magee, MS R+27
- Webster City, IA R+28
- Aberdeen, MS D+18
- Tiburon, CA D+44
- Kenilworth, NJ R+22
- Willows, CA R+33
- Castle Rock, WA R+29
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.