San Juan Capistrano is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 73% of adults in San Juan Capistrano typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in San Juan Capistrano, ~35% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How San Juan Capistrano compares
Among cities within 25 miles, San Juan Capistrano leans more Republican than 19 of 39 neighbors.
San Juan Capistrano runs about 24 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while San Juan Capistrano is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within San Juan Capistrano. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+18), a spread of about 29 points.
Why San Juan Capistrano leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for San Juan Capistrano, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
San Juan Capistrano votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while San Juan Capistrano runs about 24 points more Republican.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; San Juan Capistrano, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in San Juan Capistrano looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. San Juan Capistrano is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ladera Ranch, CA Even
- Laguna Niguel, CA Even
- Capistrano Beach, CA R+9
- Dana Point, CA R+3
- San Clemente, CA R+11
- Laguna Hills, CA D+2
- Aliso Viejo, CA D+11
- Coto de Caza, CA R+16
- Mission Viejo, CA R+3
- Laguna Beach, CA D+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Navarre, FL R+44
- Salem, MA D+41
- Gadsden, AL R+19
- Hilo, HI D+24
- Glenview, IL D+21
- Newbury Park, CA D+13
- Oakley, CA D+2
- Richmond, IN R+20
- Tolleson, AZ D+25
- Washington, PA R+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.