Emerald Estates leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 82% of adults in Emerald Estates typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Emerald Estates, ~24% vote Democratic, ~58% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Emerald Estates compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Emerald Estates leans more Republican than 6 of 7 neighbors.
Emerald Estates runs about 62 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Emerald Estates is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Emerald Estates leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Emerald Estates, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Emerald Estates votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Emerald Estates runs about 62 points more Republican. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 83% of residents in Emerald Estates drive to work alone, above 89% of neighborhoods. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Emerald Estates are family households, above 79% of neighborhoods.
Adult arthritis and voter turnout
Places with a low adult-arthritis rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Emerald Estates, Bakersfield, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Arthritis does not drive turnout; it reflects the age and health profile of an area.
Why turnout in Emerald Estates looks the way it does
Turnout in Emerald Estates sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Rosedale, Bakersfield, CA R+53
- Fruitvale, Bakersfield, CA R+34
- Olive Drive Area, Bakersfield, CA R+42
- Stockdale Greens, Bakersfield, CA R+15
- Seven Oaks, Bakersfield, CA R+28
- Seven Oaks at Grand Island, Bakersfield, CA R+22
- Haggin Oaks, Bakersfield, CA R+19
- Park Stockdale, Bakersfield, CA D+2
- The Oaks, Bakersfield, CA R+22
- Tevis Ranch, Bakersfield, CA R+17
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Arlington, Youngstown, OH D+44
- Wyatt Street, Largo, FL D+8
- Hohokam Village, Mesa, AZ D+9
- Heart of Missoula, Missoula, MT D+51
- Lakewide, Oakland, CA D+75
- Sugar Pond Manor of Wellington, Wellington, FL R+6
- Martin Luther King, Chattanooga, TN D+36
- Victory Hills, Albuquerque, NM D+51
- Central Business District, Worcester, MA D+42
- Cherrydale, Arlington, VA D+57
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.