Guinea Mills, VA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Guinea Mills

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Guinea Mills leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.

 

About 74% of adults in Guinea Mills typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Guinea Mills, ~28% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Guinea Mills compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Guinea Mills leans more Republican than 30 of 61 neighbors.

Guinea Mills runs about 30 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Guinea Mills is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Guinea Mills. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+14), a spread of about 19 points.

Why Guinea Mills leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Guinea Mills, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Guinea Mills votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Guinea Mills runs about 30 points more Republican.

Developed land and Republican lean

Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Guinea Mills, VA sits below the national average on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Guinea Mills looks the way it does

Turnout in Guinea Mills sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.