Hillcrest-Bakersfield, Bakersfield, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Hillcrest-Bakersfield

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Hillcrest-Bakersfield is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.

 

About 42% of adults in Hillcrest-Bakersfield typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hillcrest-Bakersfield, ~21% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~58% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Hillcrest-Bakersfield compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Hillcrest-Bakersfield sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 9 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 4 leaning the other way.

Hillcrest-Bakersfield runs about 23 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Hillcrest-Bakersfield sits closer to the political middle.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Hillcrest-Bakersfield. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 17 points.

Why Hillcrest-Bakersfield leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hillcrest-Bakersfield, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Hillcrest-Bakersfield votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Hillcrest-Bakersfield runs about 23 points more Republican.

Preventive-care access and voter turnout

Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Hillcrest-Bakersfield, Bakersfield, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.

Why turnout in Hillcrest-Bakersfield looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hillcrest-Bakersfield is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 20%, about 10 points above the California average of 10%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 32% of adults in Hillcrest-Bakersfield report food insecurity, above 86% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 74% of adults in Hillcrest-Bakersfield have completed high school, below 92% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.