Larkinville is a Democratic stronghold. About 82% of voters here vote Democratic and 18% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Larkinville typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Larkinville, ~39% vote Democratic, ~8% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Larkinville compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Larkinville leans more Democratic than 20 of 34 neighbors.
Larkinville runs about 51 points more Democratic than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Larkinville. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+87) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 80 points.
Why Larkinville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Larkinville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 58% of adults in Larkinville have never been married, well above similar-sized neighborhoods (around 40%).
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Larkinville, Buffalo, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Larkinville looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 38% of adults in Larkinville report food insecurity, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 16%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 62% of households in Larkinville rent, about 37 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Larkinville sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Park Central, Orlando, FL D+37
- Noralto, Sacramento, CA D+34
- Downtown Waterford, Waterford, CA R+23
- Cloverleaf, Louisville, KY D+10
- Hewitt Area, Greensboro, NC D+60
- Turtle Run, Coral Springs, FL D+24
- San Pedro, Robstown, TX D+19
- Nasons Corner, Portland, ME D+37
- Midtown, Reno, NV D+36
- Old Palo Alto, Palo Alto, CA D+69
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.