Maui County leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Maui County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Maui County, ~31% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Maui County compares
Maui County runs about 4 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Maui County. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Maui County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Maui County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 31% of adults in Maui County hold a bachelor's degree, above 78% of counties.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Maui County, HI sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Maui County looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 11% of homes in Maui County have more than one occupant per room, in the top fraction of counties. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Maui County sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 35% of households in Maui County rent, above 86% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Honolulu County, HI D+18
- Hawaii County, HI D+20
- Kauai County, HI D+20
- Aleutians West Census Area, AK Even
- Mendocino County, CA D+23
- Marin County, CA D+48
- San Francisco County, CA D+61
- Humboldt County, CA D+27
- San Mateo County, CA D+48
Counties with Similar Populations
- Yellowstone County, MT R+25
- Ector County, TX R+42
- Rock County, WI Even
- Houston County, GA R+4
- Charles County, MD D+38
- Olmsted County, MN D+12
- Hampshire County, MA D+45
- Portage County, OH R+12
- Johnson County, IN R+35
- Greene County, OH R+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.