Vista leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Vista typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vista, ~35% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vista compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Vista leans more Democratic than 5 of 14 neighbors.
Vista runs about 54 points more Democratic than Idaho as a whole. Idaho leans Republican overall, while Vista is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Vista. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+24) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+13), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Vista leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vista, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Vista votes against the grain of Idaho. Idaho leans Republican overall, while Vista runs about 54 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Vista, Boise, ID sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Vista looks the way it does
High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, mostly because the housing stress common in those areas makes voting harder. Vista sits in the top 15% nationally on a violent-crime measure. See CrimeGrade for more details. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Depot Bench, Boise, ID D+35
- Hillcrest, Boise, ID D+10
- Central Bench, Boise, ID D+21
- Downtown, Boise, ID D+37
- Southeast Boise, Boise, ID D+17
- Franklin Randolph, Boise, ID Even
- East End, Boise, ID D+33
- North End, Boise, ID D+57
- Veterans Park, Boise, ID D+29
- Winstead Park, Boise, ID D+20
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- City Center West, Philadelphia, PA D+70
- Twin Lakes, Federal Way, WA D+28
- South Side, Wilmington, NC D+57
- Highland Garden, Hollywood, FL D+37
- Silver Terrace, San Francisco, CA D+36
- Little Italy, Manhattan, NY D+58
- Orchard District, Bend, OR D+29
- Downtown Pasadena, Pasadena, TX D+6
- Portsmouth, Portland, OR D+61
- South Side, Scranton, PA D+16
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Idaho Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.