Bailey County leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 62% of adults in Bailey County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bailey County, ~16% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bailey County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Bailey County leans more Republican than 5 of 8 neighbors.
Bailey County runs about 35 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Bailey County. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+63) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+34), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Bailey County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bailey County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 78% of households in Bailey County are family households, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Bailey County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bailey County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Bailey County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 6 points below the Texas average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Parmer County, TX R+50
- Lamb County, TX R+57
- Curry County, NM R+34
- Castro County, TX R+40
- Roosevelt County, NM R+37
- Cochran County, TX R+47
- Deaf Smith County, TX R+30
- Hockley County, TX R+63
- Hale County, TX R+44
- Swisher County, TX R+48
Counties with Similar Populations
- Schuyler County, IL R+44
- Wabaunsee County, KS R+53
- Powell County, MT R+48
- Pembina County, ND R+51
- Tillman County, OK R+55
- Weston County, WY R+68
- Swisher County, TX R+48
- Fall River County, SD R+52
- Forest County, PA R+24
- Huerfano County, CO R+7
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.