Elmendorf Afb is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Alaska did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 42% of adults in Elmendorf Afb typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elmendorf Afb, ~21% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~58% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elmendorf Afb compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elmendorf Afb sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 7 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 3 leaning the other way.
Elmendorf Afb runs about 15 points more Democratic than Alaska as a whole. Alaska leans Republican overall, while Elmendorf Afb sits closer to the political middle.
Why Elmendorf Afb leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Elmendorf Afb, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Elmendorf Afb votes against the grain of Alaska. Alaska leans Republican overall, while Elmendorf Afb runs about 15 points more Democratic.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Elmendorf Afb, AK sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Elmendorf Afb looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. More than 99% of households in Elmendorf Afb rent, about 75 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and more than 99% of adults in Elmendorf Afb have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Anchorage, AK D+23
- Fort Richardson, AK R+14
- Eagle River, AK D+9
- Chugiak, AK R+5
- Big Lake, AK R+39
- Peters Creek, AK R+10
- Knik, AK R+40
- Indian, AK D+8
- Knik-Fairview, AK R+40
- Hope, AK R+37
Cities with Similar Populations
- California, PA R+3
- Wirtz, VA R+52
- Jefferson, IA R+28
- Jefferson, MA D+10
- Morgans Point Resort, TX R+45
- Lyncourt, NY D+8
- Hope Valley, RI R+15
- Kilauea, HI D+10
- Falls City, NE R+51
- Poca, WV R+53
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Alaska Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. AK did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.