Carver City-Lincoln Gardens, Tampa, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Carver City-Lincoln Gardens leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.

 

About 51% of adults in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens, ~31% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Carver City-Lincoln Gardens compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Carver City-Lincoln Gardens leans more Democratic than 21 of 26 neighbors.

Carver City-Lincoln Gardens runs about 36 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Carver City-Lincoln Gardens is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Carver City-Lincoln Gardens. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+29) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+19), a spread of about 11 points.

Why Carver City-Lincoln Gardens leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carver City-Lincoln Gardens, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Carver City-Lincoln Gardens votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Carver City-Lincoln Gardens runs about 36 points more Democratic. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Carver City-Lincoln Gardens sits in the top quarter (about 57%, above 77% of neighborhoods). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 57% of adults in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens have never been married, above 91% of neighborhoods.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Carver City-Lincoln Gardens, Tampa, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 77% of households in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens rent, about 52 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Carver City-Lincoln Gardens sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.